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Last month, retail footwear prices increased 1.0 percent from a year ago, the most in six months.

Shoe prices began to rise in January after ending 2024 with modest movement, according to the latest data from the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA).

Last month, retail footwear prices increased 1 percent from a year ago, the most in six months, the FDRA noted. This came as prices rose year-over-year across all three target markets. Prices for children’s shoes were up 0.1 percent, men’s increased 1.1 percent and women’s footwear climbed 1.2 percent in January.

In fact, the FDRA said that children’s footwear prices rose for the fourth straight month, men’s footwear prices climbed eleven of the last twelve months, and women’s footwear prices expanded the most in seven months.

“The acceleration in retail footwear prices came as overall inflation sped up and duties paid on footwear imports grew at double-digit year-over-year rates for the fourth straight month,” Gary Raines, chief economist at FDRA, told FN. “The long-term co-movement between trends in duties paid on footwear imports and retail footwear prices is well established.”

This latest increase in shoe prices is just the beginning if President Trump’s heightened tariffs on China remain in place. As for when these increases may hit consumers, FDRA president and chief executive officer Matt Priest told FN last week that they could come as soon as back-to-school.

“If you think about orders being placed and the need to bring in more product for back-to-school, I can envision that’s when these increases may occur,” Priest said. “The other problem is that tariffs are being added on everything from China, so there is a broader concern about disposable income for working families. Their budgets are already stretched, so to add this extra layer it is going to cost more for families with less discretionary income when they look to buy things like footwear.”

But for now, Raines added that action needs to be taken to mitigate further increases. “As inflation and footwear prices reaccelerate, now is not the time for the new administration to impose even higher duties on America’s largest footwear suppliers, saddling consumers with even higher prices,” Raines said.

January’s movement in footwear prices comes at the same time the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that overall inflation accelerated for the fourth straight month.

The bureau’s latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, saw prices increase 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, after rising 0.4 percent in December. Prices were also up 3.0 percent over the last 12 months, the fastest in eight months.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 0.4 percent in January and increased 3.3 percent over the same time last year.

Speciality shoe retailers are seeing serious wins when it comes to traffic in their physical stores.

Visits to shoe stores were up 36.2 percent in June 2023 from a January 2020 baseline, which outpaces visit growth in apparel stores, at 8.2 percent. That’s according to a recent report from foot traffic data analytics firm Placer.ai, which found that shoe stores could enter the second half of 2023 with a strong bump in traffic, thanks to traffic-driving events like back-to-school and the winter holidays later in the year.

The report highlighted three shoe stores that have seen outstanding year-over-year traffic increases: Boot Barn, WSS and Nike.

“As retail gears up for the back-to-school season, Nike, WSS and Boot Barn appear to be in position to build on their recent success and drive traffic from back-to-school shoppers,” read the report, written by Placer.ai content writer Ezra Carmel.

Last year, between July and December, all three of these chains experienced a higher share of visits from households with kids compared to the national average, which suggests a preference for these stores during the back-to-school season.

According to Coresight Research’s U.S. Back-to-School 2023 report, consumers expressed a strong preference toward shopping among specialty retailers such as Foot Locker, Shoe Carnival and Famous Footwear, all three of which saw double-digit shares of shopper preference.

After a relatively slow Q1, a robust back-to-school season could give retailers a much-needed boost to make up for lost ground. Various shoe chains have already spoken confidently about their plans for back-to-school, with some rolling out new campaigns to capture demand.

Across the board, shoe retailers appear to be prioritizing their physical stores to attract demand this season, as consumers overwhelmingly plan to shop in stores, Coresight found. Almost four in five shoppers plan to shop in stores this season, up 4.1 percentage points from the prior year and more than 8 percentage points higher those who plan to purchase online.

Foot Locker recently launched its back-to-school campaign, which ties in a community focus with in-store events aimed at giving back. And the Caleres-owned Famous Footwear expects to surpass its best ever back-to-school performance from 2022 this year with a new marketing campaign that will target the millennial family.