The Sneaker Resale Market Had a Sluggish September, But October Could Be More Promising
The Caitlin Clark 1 basketball sneaker is doing well in October’s collectible resale market, while the Mind 002 launch in September was a highlight for last month’s resale tally for Nike.
The sneaker resale market is feeling the impact of a broader sneaker slowdown.
Despite 30 product launches in September, only 13 sneakers sold out in the primary channels and traded at premiums in the secondary market on resale platforms such as StockX and GOAT, according to Needham analyst Tom Nikic. He describes sneakers selling out in the primary channels that trade at premiums in the secondary collectibles resale market as “high-heat” products.
The average resale premium was 27 percent. Nike had nine sneakers on September’s high-heat list, with its Air Max 1000 “Stone Burgundy Crush” garnering the highest resale premium at 56 percent. The sneaker sold at $180 in the primary channel and then jump to $280 at resale. The Swoosh had two other sneakers that garnered a 43 percent premium, the Book 2 “Detroit Lions,” at $222 at resale from $155 in the primary channel, and the Air Max 90 x Wagyu “Black and Anthracite, at $215 at resale from $150 in the primary channel.
Joining Nike with a 43 percent premium was the Adistar 5 “Larry June” from Adidas, with a resale price of $228 and a primary channel price tag of $160. Vans made the premium list with its Pearlized Old Skool “Yacht Club,” at $160 in the resale market representing a 23 percent premium, up from $130 in the primary channel.
Also doing well is the Mind franchise, which remains a bright spot for Nike, with release volume relatively low. The new colorway for Mind 002 that launched in September, “Fossil Stone and Plum Eclipse,” sold out quickly and is trading at premiums in the resale market, around $175 versus the original launch price or $145.
The overall resale market was down from a year ago, which saw significant premium highlights from Nike. A year ago, Swoosh’s Mars Yard Shoe 3.0 commanded a 282 percent premium, with resale at $1,051 from $275 at launch. Making the list was also the Converse Shai 001 “Butter,” commanding a 160 percent premium to $338 at resale from $130 at launch. And then there was the Air Max 95 Yu-Gi-Oh pack in multiple colorways, with a 126 percent premium to $451 from $200 at launch.
The Needham analyst’s Monthly Sneaker-launch Tracker also found that the 13 sold out in primary channels last month were down from 19 high-heat launches in September 2025, and way below the 30+ high-heat launches from 2021 to 2022.
“Also, of the seven retro Jordans launches in September, six are trading at discounts in the resale market, reflecting subdued demand for this struggling franchise,” Nikic noted in a research note on Friday.
The Jordan 6 Women’s Low “Metamorphosis” saw the highest decline percentage-wise, down 47 percent at resale to $109 from $205 at launch. That was followed by the Jordan 7 “Tennis Day,” down 40 percent to $128 from $215.
The Needham analyst is optimistic about the October resale market. “On the bright side, the month is off to a decent start, with six successfull launches month-to-date, including a new Nike Mind colorway and the debut of the new Caitlin Clark basketball sneaker,” he noted.
The Caitlin 1 that launched on Oct. 1 thus far is trading at a 27 percent premium at resale at $178 from $140. And Jordan Brand launched its Jordan 1 Low “Howard University” on Oct. 1, which is commanding a resale premium of 41 percent to $218 from the launch price of $155.
Thus far, Nikic said there are 27 potential high-heat sneaker launches slated for the month. “This would be an increase from the 21 high-heat launches in October 2025,” he noted. Nineteen launches are slated from Nike, four from Adidas, two from Vans, and one each from New Balance and Puma.
The analyst did caution that in recent months, results from the launches have been mixed, with some sneakers selling quickly and other styles sitting on shelves for a long time.